Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 13.666732 15.609462 17.691190 20.083230 22.751187 25.630581 28.968418
2025-10-19 10.688566 13.316222 16.342337 20.066442 24.506219 29.608804 35.894720
2025-10-26 9.017604 11.891840 15.360149 19.819062 25.361270 31.982482 40.446085
2025-11-02 7.848176 10.895818 14.730729 19.855571 26.462344 34.624447 45.392949
2025-11-09 7.004830 10.172019 14.304933 20.014649 27.607210 37.255321 50.324389
2025-11-16 6.231632 9.440820 13.773603 19.946806 28.392868 39.404640 54.680572
2025-11-23 5.551717 8.754859 13.220260 19.767849 28.965035 41.241635 58.645648
2025-11-30 5.069196 8.295537 12.927555 19.899471 29.928294 43.600483 63.361294
2025-12-07 4.768279 8.070417 12.939123 20.441444 31.464336 46.775212 69.284433
2025-12-14 4.295753 7.533167 12.441377 20.191528 31.830417 48.309939 72.961951
2025-12-21 3.741057 6.809924 11.600325 19.358708 31.275736 48.483851 74.685664
2025-12-28 3.568839 6.692780 11.683365 19.929098 32.820358 51.722153 80.900393
2026-01-04 3.360473 6.501780 11.642769 20.314771 34.121414 54.685318 86.877010
2026-01-11 3.066655 6.135539 11.289300 20.176101 34.598990 56.437192 91.127691
2026-01-18 2.792964 5.776496 10.915901 19.970608 34.942865 57.976550 95.085248
2026-01-25 2.585694 5.518186 10.691849 19.991900 35.638725 60.066771 99.935392
2026-02-01 2.421126 5.323640 10.561731 20.157500 36.566168 62.537298 105.437859
2026-02-08 2.235745 5.070404 10.306819 20.087246 37.090597 64.379734 110.009084
2026-02-15 2.052187 4.802210 10.003192 19.907902 37.413462 65.898705 114.103949
2026-02-22 1.926469 4.639204 9.880824 20.040078 38.264224 68.288006 119.645944
2026-03-01 1.861946 4.598013 9.984574 20.585461 39.847589 71.921405 127.294660
2026-03-08 1.707559 4.348742 9.668561 20.333984 40.016265 73.212568 131.161432
2026-03-15 1.502985 3.966913 9.062004 19.496062 39.094527 72.633475 131.916944